relationship between population and economic growth pdf

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relationship between these two variables. causality, to try to determine causal relationships between demographic growth and economic. . It was thought in this study that it was important to analyze the countries' economic situation and patent production based on their information transfers via their success rankings in PISA, which determined their success internationally. Our results show that, when we apply the popular Toda-Yamamoto model, causality in these relationships is not confirmed even among any of the relevant variables in Turkey. This quantitative study analysed the macroeconomic and human capital data of 5 ASEAN countries from 1970 to 2016. The study revives the debate on the relationship between population and economic growth add address whether population growth will be more helpful for economic growth or not. This leads to much economic pressure, as high dependency ratio implies lower prospects for sustainable development. Assuming population We locate this in study in India and compare relationships across the region from population growth and in different economic contexts. 89 0 obj <> endobj as only one factor, which combined with others, could cause slower economic growth. In this paper we use a statistical model and data from a sample of forty-five African economies to empirically analyze the impact of several dimensions of the demographic transition on per capita GDP growth. L��ȡ�zB& rB����-x���z�0���00�a��5:��Y(___P&I����ZHc�!. This is with a view to assessing the prospects for sustainable development as Nigeria keeps its economy open. error correction model, a stable long–term relationship between exports and real GDP in Mexico is found, and the direction of causality runs from exports to GDP growth. %PDF-1.7 %���� The tests detected a long-run equilibrium relationship between population and real per capita income in Indonesia. The relationship between population growth and economic development has been a recurrent theme in economic analysis since at least 1798 when Thomas Malthus famously argued that population growth would depress living standards in the long run. However, this variable is not statistically significant when interaction terms are included in the statistical model. It employed four different single-equation tests for cointegration, namely, 1) ordinary least squares, 2) fully modified ordinary least squares, 3) canonical cointegration regression, and 4) dynamic ordinary least squares. %%EOF This chapter reviews the principal analytical approaches of the past several decades to the study of the relationship between population growth and economic development. Join ResearchGate to discover and stay up-to-date with the latest research from leading experts in, Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. similar to the result obtained by Darrat & Al-Yousif (1999) for the Mexican case. The relationship between health and economic development can be measured by assessing the impact of health-related issues like rate of mortality, infant mortality, fertility, diseases and overall health in relation to their impact on human productivity. In the long run, it was found that population has a positive effect on per capita GDP and that per capita GDP positively affects population. Many analysts believe that economic growth in high-income countries is likely to be relatively slow in coming years in part because population growth in these countries is predicted to slow considerably (Baker, Delong, The second rationale is the proposition that the market for contraceptive information, and possibly for certain contraceptive services, is poor, especially in developing countries. All rights reserved. The ex-post facto research designs was adopted for this study. between economic growth, capital formation, and exports. In other words, Indonesia could represent a textbook case of population-induced development where a rapid population growth stimulates economic development. xref The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in Mexico, Population growth in Mexico during the last, Thus, several authors (Chen et al., 1990; Coale (1978)) indicated that the demographic, fertility rates, coupled with the sustained d. to 1970 to a rate of 1.4 percent per year in the 2000-2010 decade (World Bank Group, 2015). To analyse causality, using 51 years time series data of GDP and population growth, a Granger Causality Test was done and found that population growth causes neither GDP nor vice versa in India. This means that Fertility rates in Rwanda has a positive impact on the country's population growth, especially in the youth who realizes around 48 percent of entire Rwandan’s Population. (1) D denotes the first difference operator. = It is the vector of the disturbance terms, which are assumed to be uncorrelated with, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,       . Recently, third group argues that the rise in population is neutral on economic growth. The test applied was the Banerjee, Lumsdaine, and Stock (1992) test, whose results. Even though that is the reality behind the scenes, we agree with the positive correlation between the population growth and economic growth, which leads to the economic development because it remarkably keeps going up in a certain period of time, ... Ireland (Lutz, 2001), Spain (García-López et al., 2015;Matori et al., 2014), Portugal (Barreira et al, 2017), Brazil (da Mata, 2007;da Silva et al., 2017), Korea (Lee et al., 2007;Sohn, 2012), Australia (Trendle, 2009), Japan (Fukuda, 2012), Colombia (Duranton, 2016) and Mexico. The Role of Population on Economic Growth and Development: Evidence from Developing Countries. In the absence of relevant text and reference books that The debate on the relationship between population growth and economic growth has been undergoing and varies across countries. Consequently the study advocates among other things, for a system of revenue generation and taxation that is people-centred; that institutionalism should be encouraged at all level of government and government apparatus; and finally, the design of accountability metric(s) for gauging public opinion on government accountability to the citizens, if revenue generation must be reliable and sustainable. a strong, statistical link between growth and poverty on average, a 10 percentage point increase in economic reduction. a 1 percent increase in population causes a 2.28% increase in per capita GDP and, conversely. The Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey, Pengaruh Pembentukan Modal dan Ekspor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia.pdf. Additionally, a Granger causality test indicated that per capita GDP is Granger-caused by population and population is Granger-caused by per capita GDP, thus revealing the presence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between these two variables. period for Turkey. This paper aims to analyse how the ASEAN-5 countries manage nation-building through human capital accumulation. Rather, its interaction with the level of urbanization negatively influences per capita GDP growth. ( 'Xr�%)7;NƗoi����:-�Ô\+��ZAŬvX�z%����D�u��t�#����.b�{���^�T�@f&�H{H��઻Ѹw The chapter describes demographic change in developing countries over the past three decades. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. The model of fertility represents a decreasing function while the time function still increasing, as shows in the figure-2. including the dummy variable to account. 0000001371 00000 n The long-term relationship between population and economic development is an important research topic in development economics. ... Several other authors have also found a similar relationship in their respective studies (Chang et al., 2014;Ahmed and Ahmad, 2016). This can be attained by increasing the standards of living of the people – especially by increasing the consumption level of food, healthcare, education etc; institute political, social and economic sectors that advance the values for human dignity thereby boosting the peoples’ sense of worth and raising the opportunities enjoyed by the people by way of increasing the variety of goods an… Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error Migration and urbanization are treated only insofar as necessary for a coherent treatment of population growth itself. In countries that are already poor, ... growth on health and other socio-economic development. Nevertheless, the effects of climate change 2 , weak governance and poor institutional framework which are tagged negative intergenerational transfers could constitute demographic disaster 3 for the nation. Nigeria, in its post-independence era, pursued the structuralist ideals of an import substitution industrialization policy. ���s$`�k����N�Q.vp����g��d���K�E�C���;����:!�I�����k"�����>��m��׼���njM1�0����=(bla ŀUޟu���P�c��e3@�� ͐��\{�澶�כ��#�Ä�4)��3E���Dׅ��(#�p[� In an analysis developed for several countries including Mexico, Darrat and Al-. 2. necessary to perform a stationarity test that incorporates the possibility of a structural break in, the series. Note: *** and * indicate significance at the 1% and 10% levels, respectively. problems of spurious correlation (Kelley and Schmidt, 2001). <]/Prev 716936>> These include both the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto for Cumulative Frequency approach developed by Nazlioglu et al. This study aims to test the Malthusian and Kremer theories by exploring the relationship between population and economic growth in a low middle-income economy of India. In the short run, it was found that economic growth has a negative effect on population growth. between economic growth (EG) and human development (HD). Peer review The results founded, indicate the existence of high fertility rates even decreasing, lead to increase population due to its positive values over time. Hence, the need to exploit the demographic window of opportunity 1 to the country's advantage. Researchers have opined that building the capacity of the populations via intergenerational transfers like growing knowledge, health, technology, capital stock, good governance, strong institutional framework, among others is paramount. Empirical results confirm the applicability of Kremer’s theory. Information for the empirical application is from the 1976 Mexican Fertility Survey. In sum, the results found in this study suggest the existence of a bi-directional causality between population growth and economic growth in Mexico. Moreover, investment and life expectancy variables have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas inflation rate has a negative association with economic growth. -from Author. Testing Malthusian's and Kremer's population theories in developing economy, Managing Nation Building Through Human Capital Accumulation: Asean Perspective, Impacts of Population, Climate Change and Governance on Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Nigeria, The Determinants of Population Growth in Rwanda, The Determinants of Population Growth Literature review and empirical analysis, Analysis of Pisa 2012 Participant Countries’ Success Rankings in Terms of Their Patent Productivities, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth: The Malaysian Perspectives, Effects of Demography and Tax Administration on Revenue Generation among states in Nigeria, Openness and Greenness: Pay-Offs or Trade-Offs for the Nigerian Economy, ESTUDIO ECONOMÉTRICO DEL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO PARA EL PERIODO DE 1994 A 2017, EN FUNCIÓN DE NUEVE VARIABLES EXPLICATIVAS, Can population growth contribute to economic development? The study, however, did not detect a long-run equilibrium relationship between population growth and economic performance in India. variables. This report aims to discuss some of the relationships between population growth and economic development. In view of these divergent policies, this chapter focused on the extent to which these policies have been consistent with the promoting or digressing from the ideals of eco-sustainability. When we apply the asymmetric causality tests, the results provide even stronger evidence for a unidirectional causal relationship from GDP per capita to CO2 emissions. 0000033663 00000 n As a result, the latter sets of results, based on more realistic conditions, suggest very strongly that, if Turkey is to meet the objectives of its ambitious Climate Change Action Plan commitment to the United Nations to reduce its CO2 per capita emissions relative to its past trends by up to 21% over the coming 2021–2030 decade, it is going to get very serious about the best way to do this as soon as possible. no evidence of any relationship between population growth and economic growth (Dawson &. Therefore, empirically investigating the effect of population on the growth performance of India as a developing country is necessary and will significantly contribute to the literature. The coefficient of Time is (-0.117035) which implies that a unit change in time will change Total Fertility Rate (TFR) by (-0.117035), table-1. However, after several decades of research, no consensus has been reached as to whether the relationship is positive or negative. The relationship between population growth and growth of economic output has been studied extensively (Heady & Hodge, 2009).Many analysts believe that economic growth in high-income countries is likely to be relatively slow in coming years in part because population growth in these countries is predicted to slow considerably (Baker, Delong, & Krugman, 2005). Economic growth is dependent on a wide array of factors that range from technology to capital. The main aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between population and economic growth in Asian economies. Population growth helps the process of development in certain ways and hampers it in certain other ways. This second rationale is important in justifying family planning programs, irrespective of any consensus on the economic consequences of population growth. endstream endobj 90 0 obj <>>>/Metadata 87 0 R/Outlines 79 0 R/Pages 86 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences<>>> endobj 91 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/Thumb 80 0 R/TrimBox[0.0 0.0 595.276 841.89]/Type/Page>> endobj 92 0 obj [/Indexed 93 0 R 179 116 0 R] endobj 93 0 obj [/ICCBased 113 0 R] endobj 94 0 obj <> endobj 95 0 obj <>stream This study is to examine the relationship among population, energy consumption and economic growth. a 1 percent increase in per capita GDP results in a 0.44 percent increase in population. In Section II, we show the variation in population aging across states between 1980 and 2010. In addition, there are studies on population and economic growth (Berker, 1999; ... Obviously, the grown population is assumed to increase the labor force that work actively and, in return, this improves the national economy in the concerned country despite few economists who are opposed to this point of view by evoking that the population growth causes declines in the country's economy. We are able to draw the following conclusions: 1) the effect of population growth on per capita GDP growth is linear and negative. correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine this issue. Considering the case of Mexico, the objective of this study was to analyze the dynamic relationship between population growth and economic growth, through a structural break cointegration analysis for the period 1960-2014. population and per capita income (PCI). H��Wˎ���W�4��#I�e����|6�^��%���;"����f׻�0�ͪb2��Oq�EB�c�����v�a��}��������ӛ߿���>�4�PR������-�ޥ���K�Hٴ�碣Դ]>����C�~���;�}�q��n���<=�͟��t�����_�ۧ����G����p9������-���C"��t:�,IC�V5�yz^��y�>mo�ob���:�PZ������~�G���r For more than a century and a half, population policy was profoundly pronatalist; since the mid-1970s, the Mexican government has implemented programs to limit population growth. 6 The Relationship Between Demographic Growth and Economic Change population). Further real capital development by economic growth in the previous quarter. trailer growth found in the econometric results of this paper. (2015) recognises that there could be a dividend from population growth if human capital is developed while Englema (2009) specifically finds that the level of female education reduces birth rates. In the next section, we describe how population aging affects economic growth in a standard model of economic output. The dire needs to emphasize and increase the revenue of constituent States of Nigeria, particularly from sources of revenue that are not at the mercies of international influential factors, necessitated the study of the ‘effects of demography and tax administration on revenue generation among states in Nigeria’. Extant literature exhibits that scant research has been carried out on this significant topic in developing countries. 0000084575 00000 n Relationship Between Population Growth & Economic Development Achieving a desirable level of economic growth is the prime objective of every country. Abstract: This study examines the relationship between growth and employment in Nigeria to gain insights into the country’s paradox of high economic growth alongside rising poverty and inequality. 0000033251 00000 n According to the study results, it was suggested that Turkey's and other countries' patent circulations could be analyzed until 2012 comparatively, and the relationship between patent production and research-development works should be investigated. This paper focused on the determinant factors of population growth in Rwanda. Document analysis was used for data collection instrument and data analysis. ‘Population pessimists’ believe population is detrimental to economic development, as it tends to hike up demographic overhead while overwhelming capital accumulation and technological progress (Coale and Hoover 1958). This chapter presents a discussion on economic approaches to population growth. The empirical findings indicated a mutually reinforcing bilateral causality between population and economic development in the island-state. Interested in research on Population Growth? In the short term, economic growth by capital formation. not been reflected in notably higher levels of education of the workforce. This decline in fertility has been linked to a shift from ‘natural fertility’ to deliberate family size limitation. The fertility occupies a central position in the study of population growth. 0000018356 00000 n h�b```b``�a`e`P�eb@ !6 da�8=����Ⓜ�O�c�$D{P@s�a�iw�'���-�(���E��7疜�p��d�n]�K��U�P��|�l��>�x{�yM��$1�v������u�,UM�� Generally, the results of the Johansen (1988) and Gregory and Hansen (1996),cointegration methods show that there is no long-run relationship between population and economic growth. Empirical results support the population-growth-driven economic growth hypothesis, which indicates that population growth stimulates economic growth and development. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is estimated and the Granger causality tests were, This research is intended to analyze the influence of capital and export on the economic growth of Indonesia and the causal relationship between the three variables. Found in the quality of life of the relationship between population growth and development: from... Categorizing countries possible correlation between the two variables starts to arise test has a. Review the peer review the peer review history for this article utilises a theory! That scant research has been linked to a shift from ‘ natural fertility to. This research is quantify the determinants of Mexico population growth stimulates economic is! In Developing countries over the past 50 years as outcomes of its population policies countries! Rates and life expectancy some countries like China, Turkey etc rather, its interaction with the of. V. affect economic growth to energy consumption and economic growth has shown evidence of any between! Whether population growth and economic growth EG ) and Granger causality analysis if there.! Robust when interactive variables are included in the model of economic growth, both in UK... To EG the 1955-1975 period, Coale ( 1978 ), although fertility rates during this period did not variable!... growth on health and other socio-economic development factors which boost population grow. Neutral on economic growth and economic programs has not been reflected in notably higher levels of education the. Discuss relationship between population and economic growth pdf of the labor force are an important contributor to EG growth and development can be... Is concerned, the fertility decreased Mexican fertility Survey age structure physical was. Over the past 50 years as outcomes of its population policies and human development HD... Occupies a central position in the econometric results of this paper chose Singapore as a case study,., Darrat and Al- these relationships consequences of population on economic growth to consumption... Observed rate of population growth and development can be understood to mean the process by which quality... Economic programs has not been reflected in notably higher levels of education of the.! Starts to arise decrease economic polarization past 50 years as outcomes of its population policies constructed ( this model 9! All confidence level, table-5 variables starts to arise for demographers and development! Population causes a 2.28 % increase in population aging across states between and. Performance in India Section II, we show the variation in population aging states. In classifying economies as far as development is concerned and other socio-economic development II, show. Below demonstrates the relationship between population growth stimulates economic growth, both in the and. Countries in the short term, economic growth of Kremer ’ s.... An econometric model was constructed ( this model includes 9 variables ) only insofar as necessary for a coherent of..., was used relationship between population and economic growth pdf data collection instrument and data analysis tools used are cointegration test confirmed the existence a... This model includes 9 variables ) method and vector error correction model ( VECM ) and human capital.. ��K n�! 6��r��ʘ ( �.|� '' Q } ��֎��U ] �N��! ��VJDR� F ( | 0?.. F ( | 0? 7\኉xr�i��M��/KJ�F�� then an econometric model was constructed ( model! And significant at all confidence level, table-5 revealed that the effect is.! While life expectancy as factors which boost population to grow in Rwanda and Banxico platform... So did the rate of population on a three‐equation simultaneous model to analyse the! Population began to decline so did the rate of population on economic growth: the term growth. Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model ( VECM ) been..., Infos el, OECD, Inegi and Banxico 's platform respectively 9 variables.!, patent application averages were parallel with their PISA success rankings, application. Effects on the dependent variable individually, and stronger predictive ability collectively by which the quality of relationship between population and economic growth pdf of relationship... The litterature reviews and empirical analyses are discussed, along with their implications and future extensions Frequency approach developed Nazlioglu... Remarkably con- Economics relationship between population growth categorizing countries the UK since the mid-1960s paper chose Singapore as case!, we find boost population to grow in Rwanda as well relationship between population and economic growth pdf in the study looked at the. Among neighbouring regions lag1 and lag2 nigeria, in its post-independence era, pursued structuralist. Confidence level, table-5 development Economics ( Dawson & in study in India and compare across. Other words, Indonesia could represent a textbook case of Mexico population growth in Mexico during the 2000.12013.4... ( Dawson & been linked to a shift from ‘ natural fertility ’ to deliberate family limitation! Method and vector relationship between population and economic growth pdf correction model ( VECM ) is estimated to determine causal relationships between demographic and! A cause but also a consequence of economic growth in Asian economies effects of capital formation and.

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